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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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DraftKings is requesting that a panel of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) nullify a patent that trading house Cantor Fitzgerald says the gaming company copied for its benefit.
U.S. Patent No. 12,406,284, which lists Commerce Secretary and former Cantor CEO Howard Lutnick as its primary inventor, covers geolocation technology commonly used in sports betting.
Geolocation services, which are typically purchased through third-party vendors, are used by sportsbook operators to ensure that their clients are placing wagers from jurisdictions in which sports wagering is legal.
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The institutional layer is largely invisible to customers presented with a P2P proposition. Retail users may technically trade against one another, but the depth required by a mass-market product cannot be supplied by occasional customers alone. Professional firms must be prepared to quote continuously and commit substantial capital.
Marantelli says the London-based White Swan is a significant market maker on several secondary exchanges, accounting for as much as 40% of activity on some platforms. Its particular focus is the RFQ, parlay market.
“Just better margins,” he says of that decision. “I think it’s more defendable. It’s the area that fewer people can do well. So I think it’s more defendable margin, more ability to get long-term contracts and beneficial positions.”
